Cap rates against the 10-year. At a 10-year near 5 %, multifamily exit cap rates sit 51 basis points above it, and office 195.
A deal is priced off the spread between the cap rate and the 10-year Treasury. Funds that own property report the exit cap rate they assume, quarter by quarter, in their reports. We set the June 2026 medians for four property types against the 10-year at three dates, and we say which part of the answer is a measurement and which is arithmetic.
Eighteen real estate funds report their assumed exit cap rates. Their June 2026 medians are . On that day the -year was , so multifamily carried over it and office . -year then rose to on 5 October and was on 12 November. Hold the June cap rates where they are and the spread falls to . Apartment cap rates against the -year were , against an average of about since 2010. The spread went thin first where the cap rate was lowest. For metros we found two readings only, and the page shows them and stops there.
At a 10-year of 4.99 %, the multifamily spread is 51 basis points and the office spread is 195.
The funds are non-traded REITs and one closed-end fund, in all, and each states the exit cap rate it uses to value its property. Their are for multifamily ( funds), for industrial (), for retail () and for office (). Within a type the funds differ: office runs from , industrial from к .
Это -year Treasury was , и . On the reporting date the spreads were . At they are . At the October high they would be .
The second set is arithmetic, not a measurement. Funds revalue each quarter, and we do not yet know what the September reports will assume.
Median exit cap rate 5.50 % of 12 funds (range 5.1 % to 5.86 %), less a 10-year of 4.99 % on 12 Nov 2026, the latest reading. The cap rate is the June median, held fixed: a what-if.
Median exit cap rates of 18 funds for 30 June 2026 less the 10-year Treasury yield on the date picked; calculated by Реалист. The cap rates are not restated for the later dates.
A second reading agrees on direction. One research firm’s estimate puts the apartment cap rate over the -year at , against , so the apartment spread was already basis points below its average before the yield rose in the autumn.
The medians say which types have the least room. The metro readings say how much we can add about place.
We found two metro cap rate ranges from one survey. That is not enough to rank metros, so we do not.
A first-half 2026 broker cap rate survey is the only metro-level reading we could open without paying. It puts stabilized multifamily in New York at , up from к in the second half of 2025. Against a -year of that is a spread of about , the thinnest range on this page. The same survey puts Class A suburban office in Chicago at , a spread of roughly .
The survey also says cap rates in key coastal markets are up since late without naming the markets. It states a median of for all property types in the US.
Two ranges, one property type each, are not a metro table. Cap rates by metro and type exist in paid data we do not buy, and the free reports we read gave figures for a handful of markets in a single property type. If you price a deal in a metro, take the local broker’s trade ranges and set them against the -year yourself, the way the table above does.
What the spread means is a separate question from how thin it is.
A thin spread is a price signal. It is not a forecast.
A multifamily spread of basis points means a buyer who pays today’s assumed cap rate earns little over a Treasury for taking property risk, and counts on rent growth to make up the difference. Industrial at basis points is the same case with less margin. Office and retail show wider spreads, and the funds’ own ranges tell you the wide spreads are also where the funds disagree most.
Three things the numbers cannot show. First, a fund’s exit cap rate is an assumption in a valuation, and a trade can print above or below it. Second, a cap rate is a ratio of a net income to a price, and the spread moves when either the price or the income changes, not only when the yield does. Third, the medians come from non-traded REITs; their portfolios lean to the assets those REITs bought, not to the market as a whole.
What this page does not replace: a licensed appraisal, a broker’s opinion of value built on trades in the submarket, a lender’s underwriting of the property’s own income, or the buyer’s view of the exit. A median across funds says nothing about one building.
Set the spread against the property in front of you.
Что с этим делать
If you price or lend on property: compute the spread for your own deal, on the day you price it, from the cap rate you underwrite and the 10-year you can see. A national median is a place to start, not an answer.
Реалист reads the operating statement and the offering memorandum, rebuilds the net operating income, and returns the issues and the questions for the seller. The review sets the cap rate the price implies beside the rate the debt costs.
Источники
Found: from a dated document. Derived: calculated by us from found figures. Estimate: our judgment, with the method.
- НайденоMedian exit cap rates of 18 real estate funds, reports for 30 June 2026. A fund-assumptions summary that covers each fund’s report for 30 June 2026. We read the summary, not the 18 reports. Read 12 Nov 2026.
- НайденоThe 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, three dates. 30 June and 5 October: the daily 10-year constant-maturity series as quoted on the fund summary page (card F1). 12 November: a market data feed, which can differ from the official close by a few basis points. Read 12 Nov 2026.
- НайденоApartment cap rate spread over the 10-year, second quarter 2026. A trade news article on multifamily values, 1 Oct 2026. Read 12 Nov 2026.
- НайденоBroker H1 2026 cap rate survey: New York multifamily, Chicago suburban office, all-property median. A news article on the survey, August 2026. We read the article, not the survey itself. Read 12 Nov 2026.
- ВыведеноSpread on 30 June 2026: exit cap rate less a 10-year of 4.44 %. Реалист calculation from cards F1 and F2.
- ВыведеноSpreads at later yields, and the two metro readings, cap rates held. Реалист calculation from cards F1, F2 and F4. A what-if, not a measurement.
- EstimateHow we calculated the spreads, and what we left out. Реалист estimate of the method. Ask us for the working: alexgalt@titleman.ai.
Figures are Реалист calculations from the exit cap rates 18 funds reported for 30 June 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield on three dates, a research firm’s apartment spread as reported on 1 October 2026, and a broker’s H1 2026 cap rate survey as reported in August 2026, all read on 12 November 2026. The spreads at later yields hold the June cap rates fixed. Реалист’s opinion, not investment or legal advice.