Реалист Lab
Daily research on real estate, AI, investments and markets. Every figure opens the document it came from.
The Capital Map
$1.53 trillion of loans comes due. Who buys, and what.
Who CRE is hiring
Vacancies by role and metro across the US.
Скоро
AI inside the investment committee
Which underwriting steps firms moved to AI.
The refinancing wall, metro by metro
Where the loans are, where they hurt, where they cannot refinance.
Banks over the CRE line
264 US banks, $283 billion, state by state.
Beyond the banks
57 mid-size non-bank lenders: who lends against what, and the gap to banks.
Who buys for the REPE funds
361 managers with $250 million or more, and how small their deal teams are.
Metro Ratings, Q4 2026
Distress against rent growth, 15 US metros.
Homes for every job
Permits against jobs added in 12 big states.
The 117 larger banks
$784 billion of property loans, 8 banks over the line.
What a building costs now
12 building goods since 2020: metals doubled, lumber fell back.
Carrying a home
The payment on a median listing against income in 12 big states.
Insurers’ property loan books
$782 billion of property loans, and a third of it is now apartments.
Where development still pencils in 2027
Land, build cost, rate and exit yield for a new apartment unit in 18 metros.
The shelf is refilling
Homes for sale against October 2019 in 15 big metros: more in 11, and fewer arriving in all 15.
Who is building
Construction jobs against September 2019 in 15 big states, and the permits per thousand workers.
Two speeds
Home prices against their peaks in 15 big metros: 5 at a record, 7 still 3 % to 5 % under.
Follow the construction dollar
Private construction spending by building type against 2019: data centers and power at a record, hotels and offices for people down.
Multi-asset managers and real estate
25 big managers: real estate funds are 9.5 % of the private-fund book, and 5 run them through a property adviser.
Construction and land loans, state by state
Banks of $10 billion and more cut 15.8 %; 4,148 smaller banks grew 4.1 %. All 50 states and DC.
The REIT refinancing wall
A quarter of listed REIT debt comes due in 2027 and 2028: $82.3 billion across 58 REITs, by property type and by company.
Hotel loans coming due, metro by metro
Hotel bond loans maturing in 2026 and 2027 in nine metros: $638.6 million visible for 2027, a floor.
Cap rates against the 10-year
Fund exit cap rates in four property types against the 10-year Treasury: multifamily is 51 basis points over it, office 195.
Office-to-apartment conversions
A 90,300-unit pipeline: ten metros hold 49,374 units, and a policy study finds 16 of 18 tested buildings do not pencil without help.
What ate multifamily NOI
The national 2025 rent dollar (owners kept about 11 cents), rent and payroll in 24 metros, insurance in 10. Metro property taxes are the gap.