Carrying a home. In nine of twelve big states the payment on a median listing now takes more than 30 % of the median household income.

Nine of 12 states are above 30 % of income, and California and New York are above 46 %.

A price says what a home costs. A payment says what a household has to carry every month, and it is what a lender and a first-time buyer both look at. We took the median listing price of each of 12 large states, assumed 20 % down and a 30-year fixed loan at the Freddie Mac average rate of the same month, and set the principal and interest against the median household income of the state.

In October 2026 the share runs from 21.9 % in Ohio and 22.6 % in Illinois to 47.1 % in California and 46.7 % in New York. The middle of the 12 — 34.9 %. In 2019 it was 23.1 %, and only California, at 33.4 %, was above 30 %. Now seven more are: Tennessee, Washington, Colorado, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. Texas, at 27.2 %, Illinois and Ohio are the three still below it.

Tap a band below to see its states, what a median listing costs a month and what the median household earns.

A payment share is not a default rate. A buyer with equity from a sale, two incomes or no mortgage at all is not in these numbers, and the median household includes renters. The share measures how far the median buyer has to stretch. How we calculated the payment

Это 30 % line is a convention we use to count, not a law: at 35 % six states are over it, at 25 % ten. Why 30 %

Prices rose about as fast as incomes. The 7.33 % rate did the rest.

Compare 2019 with October 2026. Across the 12 states the median listing price is up 31.9 % on average and the median household income 31.3 %, so on average price kept pace with pay. The monthly payment is up 91.4 %. The gap is the rate. On a 30-year loan the payment per $100,000 borrowed went from $474 at the 2019 average of 3.93 % к $687 по адресу 7.33 %, 45.2 % more, in every state.

The states differ. In Ohio the listing price is up 53.8 % and income 31.7 %; in Tennessee 48.2 % и 32.9 %. There price outran pay, and the payment is up 123.2 % и 115.2 %. Colorado went the other way: price 16.9 %, income 41.4 %, and the smallest rise in share, 5.9 points. New York and Arizona are the weak side of income, 20.9 % и 22.5 % since 2019, against prices up 32.0 % и 32.6 %. New York has the largest rise in share, 17.2 points.

Switch the views to see it state by state. “At the 2019 rate” keeps today’s prices and incomes and puts the rate back at 3.93 %. California and New York would still be above 30 % (32.4 % и 32.2 %) and no other state would. The middle would be 24.0 %, close to the 23.1 % of 2019.

The last twelve months add a twist. Listing prices fell in 10 of the 12 states from October 2025, by 5.3 % in New York and 4.8 % in Colorado, yet the payment rose in all 12, from 5.7 % in New York to 15.7 % in Illinois, because the monthly average rate went from 6.25 % к 7.33 %.

What it means for a lender. A fall in listing prices does not relieve a household that must buy or refinance now: the payment on a new loan moves with the rate, and a loan already fixed stays where it was. We measure a new buyer’s payment, not the payment of owners already in their homes. Where a borrower has a floating rate or a balloon due, the current rate is the number to test. How we calculated the payment

Payments peaked in 2023 and 2024, are 1 % to 15 % below the peak, and are still 70 % to 123 % above 2019.

The chart shows the monthly payment on a median listing, state by state, from July 2016 to October 2026 (124 months). Eight of the 12 peaked in October 2023, when the rate averaged 7.62 %; Colorado peaked in August 2023, and New York, Illinois and Ohio in May 2024.

A California payment is $3,954 a month, 7.6 % under its October 2023 peak of $4,281 and more than double the $1,843 of July 2016. Ohio is at $1,554, just 1.2 % under its peak and three times its $499 of July 2016. Florida has come furthest off the top, 14.8 % below October 2023.

Pick a state to bring its line forward against the grey of the other 11. 12 lines share one shape: a long climb through 2021 and 2022, a peak in 2023 or early 2024 and a slow slide since. The shape follows the monthly rate, and that is our reading of it. How we calculated the payment

For an underwriter the point is the date. A property bought or refinanced in 2021 carries a payment that a buyer today cannot match. An exit assumption that a buyer pool exists at today’s price must also test the payment at today’s rate, and at the rate the model expects in two or three years. Where the median buyer already stretches past 30 % of income, the pool of buyers at that price is thinner than the price history suggests. That is a reading, not a measurement.

Что с этим делать

If you lend on or buy homes and apartment buildings: read the buyer’s payment against the buyer’s income, state by state and then metro by metro, and read it again at the date of closing. A national average would hide both Ohio and California.

Реалист reads the credit file of a property loan, the offering memorandum, rent roll, operating statement and collateral, and returns the issues and the questions for the borrower. The review can set a deal’s exit and buyer-pool assumptions against the payment picture of its state, so the check is the same for the 200th loan as for the first.