Data centers and the power queue. In the largest US markets almost nothing is left to lease, and the grid queue decides where the next campus goes.
A developer or a fund that wants to put a campus in a US metro asks one question first: can it get power, and when. We read two first-half 2026 brokerage reports and the grid-queue figures they cite, set seven markets side by side, and say which readings are measurements, which are reports of someone else’s measurement, and which are arithmetic.
The primary US data center markets added of supply and ended the first half of 2026 with . A record is under construction, and of it is leased before it opens, which leaves about for everyone else. Northern Virginia has available and vacancy; Atlanta, with under construction, has passed it as the market building the most. The wait for the grid is the other half of the answer: a connection in Northern Virginia is reported at , and the large-load queue in Texas is reported at in April 2026. Where rules bite as well, as in New York, Oregon and Illinois, the answer is later still. For a developer the reading is simple: the next campus goes where power can be delivered, not where the last one stood.
Two markets hold 71 % of the capacity being built, and nearly all of what is being built is already spoken for.
The brokerage’s first-half 2026 report counts of supply in the primary markets, up on the year, and vacancy of , down from . Net absorption was . Construction is a record , up , и of it is leased. That leaves open across every market, which the report puts at .
Atlanta, with under construction, is now ahead of Northern Virginia at . Together they are of the national total under construction. Northern Virginia is still the largest market, with of inventory, vacancy and available. Chicago has vacancy and no block of or more free in 2026. Hillsboro has vacancy and none either.
10.8 MW of supply available; everything due in 2026 is already committed. The utility now takes requests in batches, which lengthens the wait for power.
Figures as reported for the first half of 2026; a market with no bar was not given that figure in the report. Calculated shares are by Реалист.
A second brokerage reads the whole of North America larger: under construction, of it committed, and taken up in the half. The two reports count different things and the figures should not be set against each other. They agree on the direction: vacancy near one percent, with tenants . The second report also finds that of capacity under development is in frontier markets; in our reading, that is where space is still being added because the largest markets are full.
Space and power are different questions. The grid queue is the second one.
The wait for power is reported in years, and the readings come from second-hand accounts.
A connection in Northern Virginia is reported at , against as the national average. The queue for new substation service there is reported to run past . Neither figure comes with a method, and the seven-year figure is attributed to a brokerage’s outlook that we could not open.
In Texas the large-load queue, requests for big new consumers of power, is reported at in April of it data centers, and the same account compares it with the total generating capacity of the grid, . A queue is a list of requests, not a list of campuses that will be built. In Phoenix one utility reports committed and more in discussion.
We did not find a market-by-market table of measured waits. The only table we read lists fourteen markets and states a wait for one of them, Northern Virginia, and calls the rest shorter or unquantified, so we do not rank metros by wait.
A queue says who is in line. It does not say who gets power.
A full pipeline is a fact about the market. It is not a verdict on your site.
For a developer, leased before opening means the space is gone and the signal is for land that can be powered. For a fund, it means asking rates in the built markets are rising. The -MW-plus asking rates in the report are: in Northern Virginia, and rises of in Atlanta, in Chicago and in New York and New Jersey in the half.
Three things the numbers cannot show. First, a leased share is a share of capacity, not of tenants, and says nothing about whether the tenants will take the space. Second, capacity under construction can slip for power or for approvals. Third, the rules are moving: pauses and moratoria in New York, Oregon, Illinois and Arizona are in force or under way, and the report was written before any later change.
What this page does not replace: a utility’s own study of your site, a power agreement, an engineer’s load calculation, or a lease abstract for the tenant in question. A market total says nothing about one parcel.
Set the power question against the site in front of you.
Что с этим делать
If you are siting a campus or lending against one: ask the utility for its written study and its place in line before you price the land, and treat any wait quoted by a broker as a question to the utility, not an answer.
Реалист reads the offering memorandum and the operating statement, rebuilds the numbers, and returns the issues and the questions to put to the seller, including what the document says about power and about the tenant.
Источники
Found: from a dated document. Derived: calculated by us from found figures. Estimate: our judgment, with the method.
- НайденоPrimary-market data center totals, first half of 2026. A brokerage’s North America data center report for H1 2026, as reported by a trade news article of 28 Aug 2026. We read the article, not the report. Read 13 Nov 2026.
- НайденоMarket readings: Northern Virginia, Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Chicago, Hillsboro, New York and New Jersey, Phoenix. The same report, as reported by the same article. A market with a figure missing was not given that figure in the article. Read 13 Nov 2026.
- НайденоGrid waits and large-load queues, as reported in 2026. A trade article on how long it takes to power a data center, 1 Jul 2026, with its own cited accounts. A second hand reading of the queues; we did not open the grid operators’ own reports. Read 13 Nov 2026.
- НайденоNorth America totals from a second brokerage, first half of 2026. A brokerage’s news release of 11 Aug 2026. Its scope differs from the first report, so the two are not added or compared. Read 13 Nov 2026.
- ВыведеноCapacity under construction not yet leased, primary markets. Реалист calculation from card F1.
- ВыведеноAtlanta and Northern Virginia as a share of capacity under construction. Реалист calculation from cards F1 and F2. Both inputs are from the one report.
- EstimateHow we handled the readings, and what we left out. Реалист estimate of the method. Ask us for the working: alexgalt@titleman.ai.
Figures are as reported in two brokerage reports for the first half of 2026 (published 11 and 28 August 2026), a trade article of 1 July 2026 on grid waits, and the trade press accounts they cite, all read on 13 November 2026. Shares and sums marked as derived are Реалист calculations. Реалист’s opinion, not investment, engineering or legal advice.