Industrial rents after the boom. In the ten metros we read, eight asking rents are still up on a year ago, two have turned, and vacancy does not tell you which.

Eight of the ten metros still show higher asking rents than a year ago. Two have turned, and one of them fell by almost a tenth.

A broker publishes one national industrial report every quarter: the average asking rent in dollars per square foot a year, triple net, weighted by the space available. We took ten metros from the third-quarter 2026 report and compared each with the same quarter a year earlier. Dallas-Fort Worth is up 19.9 %, from $8.14 to $9.76 a square foot. Atlanta is up 6.6 % to $7.71. Houston is up 5.0 % to $8.16. Chicago is up 3.9 % to $7.53, and Minneapolis is up 3.9 % to $8.81.

The slow end is where the turn shows. Phoenix is up 3.5 % to $13.51, Cleveland 3.0 % to $5.76, Detroit 2.5 % to $7.40. Los Angeles is down 1.8 % to $15.92. The Inland Empire is down 9.9 %, from $13.50 to $12.17. Eight up and two down gives a median of +3.7 %.

Because every metro sits on one definition, the rent levels can be compared as well as the changes. We still rank by the change, since a level mostly reflects the kind of building and the land under it. How we chose the ten and what we left out

An average asking rent is what owners ask on space that is on the market. It moves when the mix of space on offer moves, not only when the price of a given building moves, and a jump as large as Dallas-Fort Worth’s can partly reflect which buildings are available. Read a change of a few percent as direction, not as a measurement of what tenants pay.

Vacancy is up in six metros and rents are still up in five of them. It is a weak guide on its own.

The loosest market of the ten is Phoenix at 10.3 %, 300 basis points lower than a year ago, and its rent is up 3.5 %. The tightest is Detroit at 3.8 %, 30 basis points higher than a year ago, and its rent is up 2.5 %. Atlanta sits at 8.6 %, 70 basis points lower, and its rent is up 6.6 %.

In six of the ten vacancy rose and in four it fell. Among the six where it rose, five still show higher rents than a year ago; the Inland Empire is the one that does not. Among the four where it fell, three show higher rents; Los Angeles, where vacancy fell 10 basis points, is the exception.

What the same report says about supply helps more than the vacancy rate does. Dallas-Fort Worth has 30.6 million square feet under construction, Phoenix 20.5 млн, Houston 19.6 млн and Chicago 15.2 млн. In each of these metros the rent was still up in the third quarter. Whether the space now being built arrives into rents that still rise is the question the next two quarters answer; this page does not forecast it.

We did not run a regression on ten points and do not claim a relationship either way. The point is narrower: a vacancy rate by itself would have told you the wrong thing in Phoenix, and the right thing in the Inland Empire.

Ten metros are a sample, not the market, and an asking rent is not a lease.

Two limits. First, ten metros are not the country, and the median of ten is not a national figure. Second, an asking rent is a quote, and it says nothing about concessions, free rent months or the rent in leases signed years ago, which is what a landlord actually collects.

For an owner, the practical question is the gap between the rent in your leases and the rent now asked in your submarket. For a lender, it is whether the underwritten rent growth is a metro that is still up. For a fund, it is whether a rent decline of the Inland Empire’s size is in the assumptions for a building bought on last year’s rent.

What this page does not replace: a broker’s opinion of rent for the building, a licensed appraisal, a lender’s underwriting, or a site visit. A metro average says nothing about one building.

Что с этим делать

If you own, lend on or buy industrial property: set the in-place rent in your leases against the asking rent in your submarket, and ask for the rent change over the same year. A metro figure is a place to start, not an answer.